GoldSight

Preset scenarios reflect default assumptions. Custom mode allows manual adjustment of money printing pace, real interest rate, demand, and dollar strength. In this mode, the model strictly uses the entered values, and scenario intensity is disabled.

The dollar slider indicates the dollar's annual gain (+) or loss (-) against other currencies. Zero represents a flat trend. Since gold is priced in dollars, a strong dollar suppresses the price, while a weak dollar supports it.

• Crisis and War: Demand can be set between 3.5–5.0. The model automatically fades the panic effect over time.
• Central Bank Purchases: A range of 1.2–1.5 for demand is sufficient.
• Real Interest Rate: Calculated by subtracting expected inflation from the expected interest rate. The prevailing market expectation should be entered.
• Inflation Expectation: Money printing pace is increased. Values above 5% create upward pressure.

The model gives two technical responses to extreme values:

• If the printing pace exceeds 8%: it is considered a breakdown scenario, and historical price limits are suspended.
• If demand exceeds 3.5: the model does not artificially inflate the average price; it widens the upper bound of the confidence interval to reflect increased uncertainty.

The application is designed to test different possibilities. Results should always be evaluated alongside the provided confidence interval.