Every mechanism in GoldSight rests on published academic work and publicly available data. Below you’ll find the main sources behind the model. The coefficients are derived from this literature; they are not curve-fitted.
Academic references
- Erb, C. B. & Harvey, C. R. (2013). "The Golden Dilemma." Financial Analysts Journal, 69(4), 10–42. — Long-run real value of gold and mean reversion (the golden constant). doi:10.2469/faj.v69.n4.1
- Erb, C. B. & Harvey, C. R. (2024). "Is There Still a Golden Dilemma?" SSRN Working Paper No. 4807895. — Structural demand effect of the ETF era (post-2005). doi:10.2139/ssrn.4807895
- Barsky, R. B. & Summers, L. H. (1988). "Gibson’s Paradox and the Gold Standard." Journal of Political Economy, 96(3), 528–550. — The real-rate channel: gold moves inversely to the real interest rate. doi:10.1086/261550
- Synek, R. (2024). "Cointegration Analysis of US M2 and Gold Price Over the Last Half Century." European Financial and Accounting Journal, 19(1), 1–19. — Long-run cointegration between money supply (M2) and gold (the money-supply channel). doi:10.18267/j.efaj.283
- Carpantier, J.-F. (2021). "Anything but Gold — The Golden Constant Revisited." Journal of Commodity Markets, 24, 100170. — Mean-reversion behavior of the real gold price. doi:10.1016/j.jcomm.2021.100170
- Boudoukh, J., Richardson, M. & Whitelaw, R. F. (2008). "The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability." Review of Financial Studies, 21(4), 1577–1605. — Statistics of overlapping multi-year windows. doi:10.1093/rfs/hhl042
- Box, G. E. P. (1979). "Robustness in the Strategy of Scientific Model Building." In Robustness in Statistics, pp. 201–236. Academic Press. — The "all models are wrong, but some are useful" principle.
- Hendershott, P. H. & Peek, J. (1991). "Treasury Bill Rates in the 1970s and 1980s." Boston Fed Working Paper No. 91-6. — Ex-ante real-rate estimates for 1970–80.
- Kupiec, P. H. (2021). "Treasury Yields, Inflation, and Real Interest Rates." American Enterprise Institute (AEI). — Ex-ante real-rate record for the 1970s–early 1980s.
- Bobrov, A. & Traina, J. (2023). "The Beginning of the Trend: Interest Rates, Profits, and Markups." arXiv:2307.08968. — Sensitivity of the rate peak to the chosen start year (1980 ↔ 1984).
Data sources
- FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data, St. Louis Fed) — real rate (DFII10, 10-year TIPS), money supply (M2), and CPI series. fred.stlouisfed.org
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), the inflation deflator. bls.gov/cpi
- World Gold Council (WGC) Gold Demand Trends: central-bank purchases and ETF flows (e.g., 2013 ETF outflow −880.8 t; record CB buying 2022–24). gold.org/goldhub
Some entries are working papers whose published versions may be updated. Data may be revised by the issuing institutions; live prices come from third-party sources.