GoldSight

In a normal distribution, upper and lower bounds are symmetric, but gold prices behave asymmetrically. Gold trades in a narrow band during calm periods but spikes upward during crises (a crash of equal magnitude on the downside is rare).

The model accounts for this asymmetry using the Cornish-Fisher expansion. This correction shifts the interval edges based on the distribution's skewness and tail thickness. These values are derived from the scenario; as demand rises, the upper bound widens faster than the lower bound.

• Median Stability: In crisis scenarios, the model does not artificially raise the median price expectation; only the shape of uncertainty changes.
• Limits vs. Forecasts: The upper bound is a probability limit, not a price forecast. An "increased probability of an upside surprise" does not mean the price will definitely rise.