A scenario-based thinking tool for the gold price
A price rise has three main causes: falling real interest rates, increasing money supply, and a search for safety during crises (central bank purchases and investor demand).
Historically, one or more of these factors proved decisive depending on the conditions of the era. For example, while the cause of the 1970s rally was negative real rates, the 2008-2011 rise occurred as a result of money printing. In 2022, what kept the price from falling despite a sharp rise in interest rates was the search for safety: central banks had made a record purchase of 1,082 tonnes.
In short, there is no single reason for a rise; the conditions of the period determine the direction.